Monday 23 April 2018

SHADY MOVIE LISTS: 2018's sequels

In 2015, I declared that year the "year of reboots." Well, this year is the year of sequels. (As has been every year since, like, 1950. If we're being honest.)

With that being said, I'm gonna estimate the box office gross and critical reception for this year's upcoming slew of follow-ups. With no further ado, let us jump into the fray. (By the way, I've also included prequels, rare beasts though they may be. Not spinoffs, though. Spinoffs can choke.)


Avengers: Infinity War

Shady's general thoughts: My general thoughts? This movie is an abomination.


Literally. Objectively. An abomination.

Listen, I'm all for ensemble casts as much as the next guy, but this movie contains Iron Man and friends, Hulk and friends, Thor and friends, Captain America and friends, the Guardians of the Galaxy, Doctor Strange and his buddies, Spider-Man, Black Panther and co., AND still has room for Thanos, Hawkeye, Vision, Scarlet Witch, Nick Fury, Maria Hill, Ant-Man, Black Widow...

My god, Infinity War contains the entire supporting casts of six separate film series!!!!!! SIX! If you don't think this is an abomination, you and I have nothing to say to each other. There's overstuffed and then there's this. Game of Thrones is looking at this movie like,



But anyway, that's enough of me waxing poetic about what an abomination this movie is. Putting that aside, there's no denying that Infinity War has HUGE hype behind it. People are excited for this thing and that's understating it. And, thank god, there's a big chance that a bunch of people are gonna get killed off. Which is exactly what this franchise needs. (There are like, 1500 separate websites who have bets going on who is going to die. Personally, I think Hawkeye fans better grab their life vests.)

I'm only excited for Infinity War in a cultural sense. Like, I'm excited that other people are excited, and I do think this movie is a touchstone, but on a personal level I couldn't care much less.

Box office prediction: >1 billion, obviously. It will probably exceed both its predecessors. If word-of-mouth ends up being particularly great (and that's hard to predict), it might even eclipse Avatar. We'll have to see what happens.

Rotten Tomatoes prediction: This is hard, but given that few Marvel movies go below the 80s, I'm gonna have to make a cowardly, safe prediction of 85%. If something really controversial happens in the movie - like, they kill off Thor or something - or the movie ends up being way too overstuffed and unbalanced, the score might go lower. If the movie manages to expertly handle its small army of characters, the score might go higher, maybe into the 90s. We will see.


Deadpool 2

Shady's general thoughts: Man, how can I call myself a movie blogger when I've never even seen Deadpool? I don't know what it is about this character, but I just don't care. The closest I've got to this popular phenomenon is watching X-Men Origins: Wolverine. (Which sucked.)

There's been a trend in popular culture for the past, I dunno, decade or so, where everything has to be extremely self-referential. Deadpool, in my opinion, is pretty much the peak of this meta fad. Even though I haven't seen it, I'm pretty sure it holds the record for most meta movie ever made.  Only time will tell if critics and viewers will eventually say, "Enough is enough." Is there a point where Ryan Reynolds will turn to the camera and say something witty to the audience, and for the first time ever, no one will laugh? Makes you wonder.

Box office prediction: The first movie made almost $800 billion. I think it's a safe bet that the sequel will equal or top that number. Let's say $1 billion.

Rotten Tomatoes prediction: The first movie gained critical acclaim for great action and comedy, and I'm certain the sequel isn't going to deviate from the winning formula. If it ain't broke, don't fix it. I'm going to predict upwards of 80%. Unless something goes horribly, horribly wrong.


Incredibles 2

Shady's general thoughts: I've been waiting 14 years for this. That is all.

Box office prediction: Very positive. First of all, it's Pixar, and their biggest box office bomb so far is The Good Dinosaur, which made $332 million. That this movie will recoup its budget is a given. Second of all, not only is Incredibles a brand that appeals to kids, it's also extremely popular among Gen Z and Millennials, so it's got both markets cornered. Third of all, this movie has a shit-ton of hype behind it. The first movie made over $600 million. For the sequel, I'm going to suggest a number more like $800 million, but it's possible it could go higher (or lower). It could easily pull a Toy Story 3 and rake in those billions.

Rotten Tomatoes prediction: Brad Bird has made 5 movies. Out of those, only one has a rating below the 90s. Add that to the fact that he spent thirteen years coming up with a plot good enough to justify making this sequel, and I'm going to say it will easily garner 95%. And that's lowballing it. 


Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

Shady's general thoughts: I thought Jurassic World was okay, but nothing to write home about. The sequel promises to be more of the same. I mean, there's only so much "bad boy with a heart of gold, Chris Pratt" that I can take, and I've already taken it.

Apparently, the plot of this movie is that Hammond's evil ex-partner (James Cromwell) wants to auction off dinosaurs to make a quick buck. But - of course - the biggest and baddest one escapes, and we spend approximately 100 minutes watching a bunch of characters run for their lives. Pretty standard stuff. I'm pretty sure there will never be a Jurassic Park sequel that tries to reinvent the wheel plot-wise.

The only reason I was ever excited for this is because they were bringing back Jeff Goldblum as Ian Malcolm. But then it was revealed that he's only doing a cameo. Bleh.

Box office prediction: Jurassic Park movies, altogether, have made almost $4 billion at the box office. For four movies. That's kind of a big deal. Oh, and Jurassic World made around 1/3rd of that. I'm certain this sequel isn't going to bomb, but whether it does better than its predecessor is still an unanswered question. I'm going to guess $1 billion, but we'll see if I'm right.

Rotten Tomatoes prediction: Jurassic Park, the original, is the only one of the four movies in the series to actually get critical acclaim. The rest of the movies suffered, with 50%, 53%, and 71%, respectively. Everyone's opinion seemed to be that Jurassic World was alright, but not worth the 14-year wait.

However, there are signs that Fallen Kingdom might be good. The guy helming the sequel, J.A. Bayona, has made three previous movies which all got ratings in the 80s, so he probably knows what he's doing. (As opposed to Colin Treverrow, the guy who directed Jurassic World, whose other big claim to fame is... The Book of Henry.) I'm going to throw out a wild guess and say the sequel will see a 75% approval rating: better than its predecessor, but still nothing special.


The First Purge

Shady's general thoughts: They're coming out with another Purge movie, must be a Tuesday. Seriously, this franchise started in 2014 and has already churned out four successful movies. I think we need to start considering the idea that The Purge may be the new Paranormal Activity.

I've only seen the first The Purge, and it was a fairly standard slasher in my opinion. The backstory was fascinating, but they didn't really do much with it. With that being said, the idea of a "Purge" has definitely entered the public consciousness. And with the craziness in American politics right now, we are inching closer and closer to having it become a reality. Time to invest in personal bodyguards, protective equipment, and padlocks.

This is the franchise's first prequel, and explains how the Purge came to be. It's also the first in the series not to be directed by James DeMonaco, so we'll see how that goes. Like I said with Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, I'm not expecting The First Purge to reinvent the wheel. Slash, slash, blood, scream, slash, the end, Bob's your uncle. However, if this movie can deliver some decent scares and rake in a minor amount of dough, it'll be as successful as a Purge movie can get.

Box office prediction: The Purge: $89 million. The Purge: Anarchy: $112 million. The Purge: Election Year: $118 million. These movies have only gotten more popular with time, and with a minuscule budget (the most recent movie cost $10 million), there's a very solid guarantee that The First Purge will not bomb. It remains to be seen whether The Purge is still a fad, but I'm certain we won't be seeing its end anytime soon. My guess: somewhere around $120 million.

Rotten Tomatoes prediction: If you haven't seen the ratings for these slashers, you might assume The Purge is critically-maligned, but you wouldn't be right. The first movie got a 37% on Rotten Tomatoes, while the second scored 56% and the third got 55%. That's not good, but it's not awful either. With a new director taking the lead, things are a little more uncertain. I think 55% is a pretty good bet.


Ant-Man and the Wasp

Shady's general thoughts: When Ant-Man was in production, it went through some troubles. I distinctly remember seeing a post on social media in 2015. Headline: "No one wants to direct Ant-Man." Snarky response: "No one wants to watch Ant-Man, either." Ouch.


Lest you paint me as a liar.

Ant-Man was a risk, mostly because no one but the most hardcore Marvel fanboys knew who in the fuck Ant-Man even was. It was released in 2015, but it was first discussed in freaking 2001, before the MCU was even a twinkle in Stan Lee's eye. After that, it went through writing, planning, a revolving door of directors, and the pre-release hatred/uncertainty of the moviegoing public.

But everyone was proved wrong and Ant-Man actually turned out to be great - funny, light-hearted, visually awesome and inventive, and just a great time. In fact, I think it's one of my favorite MCU movies. It ended up grossing $519 million, and with everyone's uncertainty washed away, Marvel realized that they could make visually trippy movies about characters no one knows, and everyone would go see them anyway. That's how we got Doctor Strange. In fact, I think Marvel decided, "If it's not visually trippy, get it out of our sight."


And thus, a new era was born.

Ant-Man and the Wasp is basically guaranteed to be a success. It's a MCU movie, for one thing. It's the sequel to one of the best MCU movies, for another thing. Peyton Reed is back, for a third thing. I'm actually mildly excited for this one. More so than Infinity War, even.

Box office prediction: Coming off the heels of Infinity War, it's possible people will be feeling Marvel fatigue (especially if Infinity War particularly sucks). But I seriously doubt that Ant-Man and the Wasp will be anything less than a smash success. The first one grossed >$500 million, and I believe the sequel will top it. I'll guess $700 million. That's a pretty optimistic number, but I'm in an optimistic mood.

Rotten Tomatoes prediction: Given all the turmoil, it shocked everyone when Ant-Man turned out to be pretty good, getting an 82% on Rotten Tomatoes (which is middling for the MCU, but still not bad). The sequel will probably equal or exceed that. 85% is a good, safe bet.


Hotel Transylvania: Summer Vacation

Shady's general thoughts: So you've got a gloomy, gothic franchise of slapstick kids' films about a vampire that lives in Transylvania. What's your most obvious play for a threequel? Why, send everyone on a cruise, of course!

I've said it before and I'll say it again: the Hotel Transylvania movies are the only good things Adam Sandler has done in, like, 20 years. These movies are cute and kind of visually original, but the most notable thing is that they don't suck balls. And since Adam Sandler is the lead character, that is fucking miraculous. Magic has been worked.

Like I said, this third movie takes things in a weird direction, but I appreciate that they're not sticking to the same formula. That, at least, is something. A vampire on a cruise? Extremely novel. And using "Cake by the Ocean" in a trailer in 2018? So brave.

Box office prediction: Hotel Transylvania is a cash cow. There is no denying it. It's the Despicable Me of Sony. The first movie made $368 million and the second made $462 million, which are numbers that few movies would sniff at. For this one, I'm guessing $500 million, mostly because there's no real competition around that time when it comes to movies for kids. Unless you count, like, Teen Titans Go! To the Movies. Which no one does.

Rotten Tomatoes prediction: First movie got 45%. Second movie got 55%. With this upward trend, maybe we could expect 65%? Nah, that's too much positive thinking. I'm going with the median: 50%. 


The Equalizer 2

Shady's general thoughts: Since Taken came out in 2008, there have been a glut of movies about semi-retired former badasses coming out of retirement to defend something cute. (It can be either a puppy, an ex-girlfriend, or a child. Your pick.) 2014's The Equalizer, starring Denzel Washington as said badass, lies somewhere on the spectrum between Taken 3 and John Wick. Not terrible, not anything special. It's just kinda there.

I never saw this movie and probably never will. However, it made enough bank to justify a sequel, which is coming out this July. There isn't much detail out yet on the plot of The Equalizer 2, but as far as I can surmise, it involves Denzel Washington coming out of retirement - again! - to avenge the murder of "one of his longtime friends, Susan." Anyone want to bet that Susan and Denzel used to date? I'll take that bet.

Box office prediction: The first movie made almost $200 million, not a bad amount. I don't think the sequel will bomb; action movies aren't typically the most expensive ones out there, and The Equalizer 2 therefore won't have to make too much to break even. I'm going to guess $150 million, less than the original, if only because this movie comes out in three months and I haven't seen any marketing for it yet. In fact, I probably wouldn't even have known it was happening if I hadn't been researching for this list.

Rotten Tomatoes prediction: The first movie got a surprising 60% and was apparently pretty good, for an action movie we've all seen 50 times in various forms. For the sequel I'm guessing 50% - it will probably get worse before it gets better.


Mission: Impossible - Fallout

Shady's general thoughts: Ever since they stopped numbering the sequels and gave them subtitles instead, the hyphen/colon situation has gotten kind of cringeworthy. Basically, this franchise is the new Lara Croft: Tomb Raider - The Cradle of Life.

The first movie in this franchise was good, the second and third were okay, and the fourth and fifth solidified this franchise as one of the all-time great spy series. Mission: Impossible has been on a roll since 2011, and with Tom Cruise showing no signs of slowing down at almost age 56 (!), this franchise is likely going to steamroll into the future. I'm excited to see where Fallout takes us next.

But seriously. Tom Cruise is geriatric. On the set of the next movie, he'll need regular 15-minute prune juice breaks.

Box office prediction: Rogue Nation grossed almost $700 million in 2015. And you might think "Damn," but that's actually less than what Ghost Protocol made in 2011 ($694 vs. $682). I don't know if this downward trend will continue, but I'm guessing this franchise stays pretty steady at around $700 million once again. That's a safe bet.

Rotten Tomatoes prediction: The last two movies have been critically acclaimed, even if the previous ones weren't so hot. Mission: Impossible seems to have settled into a groove, with its own particular tone (comedic yet scary) and a lot of high-tech gloss backing up its thick spy plots. I'm guessing this new movie isn't going to change that - these filmmakers know what they're doing. (They've had 20+ years to settle this franchise, after all.) My prediction: 90% or more.


Johnny English Strikes Again


Shady's general thoughts: I'm still getting used to the fact that, for some reason, they decided to make a Johnny English 2. Now they're coming out with a third one? No one asked for this, but we got it anyway. Okay, I guess. Whatever.

This film series, which stars Rowan Atkinson as a bumbling James Bond parody (because we didn't get enough of Austin Powers in the 90s), is actually pretty okay and middle-of-the-road. I'm just dumbfounded on why they felt the need to make three of them. This should have been a one-off. In 2003, we should have been allowed to say "Okay, that happened" and move the fuck on. But we weren't and still aren't. Oh, well. There are worse movies that could be made.

Box office prediction: The first movie made $160 million. The second movie made $160 million. Is it cheating if I just say $160 million?

Rotten Tomatoes prediction: Johnny English got an astoundingly lukewarm 33% approval rating in 2003. 2011's Johnny English Reborn managed to be slightly better, with 38%. Given that they've had 15 years to get this spy franchise rolling (!!!), hopefully everyone involved will have perfected their craft by now, and this movie will end up actually being funny. For now, I'm going to throw 35% out there.


Solo: A Star Wars Story

Shady's general thoughts: A Han Solo origin movie? That actually sounds pretty awesome and badass. A Han Solo origin movie starring...Alden Ehrenreich? Less so. I mean, according to some sources he's a good actor, but has he got the charisma of Harrison Ford? More importantly, does he resemble Harrison Ford whatsoever?

I mean, like... if you squint... maybe?

All I'm saying is that there was probably a better choice, but whatever. I certainly wouldn't stoop so low as to mention that the head honchos literally called in an acting coach to get Ehrenreich's impression of Ford down pat, but I digress. That article's source said, "Alden’s not a bad actor — just not good enough.” OUCH.

Regardless of its star, Solo has been troubled from the start. The original directors - the same guys behind The Lego Movie, by the way - either jumped ship or were forced to walk the plank, depending on where you get your news from. Lots of creative differences and issues were cited, and in the end, Ron Howard was brought aboard to right this sinking ship. And I guess Ron Howard is great, but... for a movie about Han Solo? I don't even know what to think about this.

The trailer is out, and it looks... I mean, it doesn't look awful. Shooty-shooty, jumpy-jumpy, dramatic music in the background, yes, okay. We've seen all this before. I'm not super interested in this one,

Box office prediction: It's Star Wars, it's golden. I'm going to throw out a pessimistic, careful guess of $700 million, because interest in this movie doesn't seem as high as the interest in Rogue One.

Rotten Tomatoes prediction: God, predicting this will be a shot in the dark. This movie could end up being fantastic despite its troubles, or it could end up being terrifically mediocre and blah. A careful guess - say, 75% - is in order.


Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald

Shady's general thoughts: There's a lot to unpack with this movie's title. First of all, I always was of the opinion that Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them was just too... fucking... long. The title, not the movie. The bigwigs could easily have hit JK Rowling up and been like, "Yo, Jo, not to bother you or anything, but this title is shitty. Throw us some replacement suggestions." Easy as pie.

Then, there's the fact that - as far as I can tell - this sequel's plot is not about fantastic beasts. So the tacked-on franchise name-drop seems kind of silly. And - "The Crimes of Grindelwald?" I don't know, this title just sounds stupid to me. Imagine if there was a Harry Potter movie called Harry Potter: The Crimes of Voldemort. It's just dumb and I'm not having it.

You know how people complain that the Star Wars sequel trilogy is just a rehash of the first one? Well, hold onto your hats, because Crimes of Grindelwald is apparently about a dark Nazi wizard who has escaped from custody and is gathering up followers to carry out his evil plot of having pure-blood wizards rule over everyone. WHERE HAVE I HEARD THIS BEFORE. (Seriously, this is outrageous.) I'm not too interested in this rehash, even though it takes place in the flapper era and everything. I could just care less. Bye.

Box office prediction: The first movie made $800 million in 2014 - not bad at all. I'm not sure there's a whole ton of hype for the sequel, but I could be wrong. My guess: $800 million or more, matching the first one... but probably not exceeding it by a whole lot.

Rotten Tomatoes prediction: The first movie got kind of a lukewarm response, with a 74% on Rotten Tomatoes. It remains to be seen if Crimes of Grindelwald will become the Empire Strikes Back of Harry Potter, but somehow I doubt it. Somewhere around 70% is my guess.


Creed II


Shady's general thoughts: I cannot believe that the Rocky franchise is still going. Genuinely just cannot believe it. It's happening right before my eyes, and yet my eyes refuse to accept what they see. After 42 years (!!!!!!!) and eight films, Sylvester Stallone is still milking that cash cow. And Dolph Lundgren is even coming back for this one!

I cannot muster any excitement whatsoever about sports movies, but I've got no animosity towards Creed. I mean, I've got pretty much nothing else to say about this one. Boxing. Yeah. Sure. Fine.

Box office prediction: More like "boxing" office. HAHAHAHA I'll shut up. Creed made $173 million in 2015, a respectable number. For the sequel, my guesstimate is $200 million, thereabouts.

Rotten Tomatoes prediction: Creed was the best-received Rocky movie with 95%. For the sequel, I'll throw 90% out there. Not as good, but still not bad at all.


Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck-It Ralph 2


Shady's general thoughts: As far as I know, this will end up being Disney's first theatrically-released sequel in 28 years (after The Rescuers Down Under), which is kind of a huge milestone. Wreck-It Ralph is likely my favorite Disney movie, but I'm honestly not that excited for this sequel. First of all, because I would frankly rather this particular movie be left alone than be continued into a follow-up. Second of all, because Ralph Breaks the Internet looks like a slightly-better version of The Emoji Movie, which is NOT a good
sign.

The trailer looks good, but reveals pretty much nothing about the plot, other than that it involves the Internet. However, I will admit that "the bunny gets the pancake" is absolutely iconic. So far, from what I've seen, Ralph Breaks the Internet gets the Internet right. Which is more than The Emoji Movie can say.

Box office prediction: Wreck-It Ralph grossed $471 million. I imagine the sequel can top that, with $500 million or more.

Rotten Tomatoes prediction: The first movie didn't reach the acclaim heights of a Pixar offering, but it did get a very solid 87%. I'm guessing the sequel will probably get around 85%. Then again, this movie is literally named after Kim Kardashian's ass, so maybe I'm being too optimistic.


Mary Poppins Returns

Shady's general thoughts: 54 years after the original Mary Poppins was nominated for 13 Academy Awards and grossed the 1964 equivalent of eight hundred million dollars (you read that right), the bigwigs finally decided, "Hey, maybe we should make a sequel to that." And so it was done, with Emily Blunt as the new Mary Poppins.

This movie holds the record for the biggest gap between a live-action movie and its sequel in history, or at least, it will when it's released this December. Honestly, I don't even know what to think about this. Mary Poppins is such a genuinely great, iconic, classic movie. To make a sequel? I don't know. It just feels like sacrilege. However, I admire their great courage in casting Lin-Manuel Miranda as the new Dick Van Dyke, and then not having him write the songs. In 2018, that takes balls.

Box office prediction: Well, the original did gross $800 million, but that was 54 years ago. Does Mary Poppins have the same amount of hype today? Only time will tell. This one is hard to guess, but I'm modestly going to estimate $300 million.

Rotten Tomatoes prediction: Once again, this is hard to guess. I think it'll probably get a rating in the 70s - I can't imagine it equaling or topping the original, no offence.


And that's the list! As these movies come out, I'll try to update with what their actual grosses and RT scores were. We'll see if I'm right or not.

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